How I did: Windows 7 Pricing Predictions0
Joe M posted in opinion, products on July 4th, 2009
In February, I made a post on my predictions for Windows 7 pricing.
That was before anything was announced, and before any major speculation began.
In fairness, I wanted to take a little time to evaluate my speculations, since pricing was announced last week.
As objectively as possible, I wanted to grade myself on the original post, and how I did.
You can read the post on the pricing announcement.
Quoting a few things from my original post:
There will also be versions that are not so “Ultimate.”
When we saw this tiering structure with Vista, it was a pain to understand. There was also the “Capable” and “Ready” campaign stickers.
This still pretty much holds true. For the most part, the versions that are most desirable with the necessary functions are Professional and Ultimate.
Microsoft dropped the ‘vague’ ‘Ready / Capable’ campaigns. To attempt another campaign with the likes of that would not have been good PR for Microsoft.
I did fairly accurate on that one.
Microsoft is going to expect a pricetag for W7.
This one held true, as best I can tell.
It will be either equivalent to the pricing structure for Vista, or will have higher tier structures.
Several reviews have made a big deal about the cost differences. For the most part, Windows 7 is still pretty expensive.
If we think that Microsoft is going to let us have W7 (Professional or Ultimate) for under $200, I think we will be disappointed.
I think I hit this one, with pinpoint accuracy… considering Professional retails for $199.99. (That’s not the upgrade.)
No one has had a good chance to look at the licensing terms for the consumer release yet.
The two parts that I did not anticipate:
1. It looks as though Microsoft will offer a Family agreement for Windows 7 Home Premium. The cost has not been announced.
The cynic in me, wants to know… what incentives / short-comings will be built-in to W7HP to motivate the home users to have to upgrade to W7P or W7U?
Will there be any price-breaks in such an event?
2. I did not anticipate Pre-ordering / Pre-pricing. This is a major cost reduction.
This is a good deal, for people that must have W7.
The drawbacks, in my opinion?
With tight budgets and frugality coming back into focus… how economical and feasible is it for everyone to pre-order?
People have gotten really frustrated and have felt a little cheated with previous versions of Windows, in that the way the license was written, if you changed two hardware components in your machine… Microsoft syntax in the license agreement essentially made the agreement null and void. That meant that the owner had to purchase another license.
When we get to see the actual license agreement… will there be caveats in hardware changes, that require you to buy another license?
The pre-order and pre-pricing options, pretty safely, you could classify as temporary.
The real consideration is the retail price. If you buy a machine, most well-known brands will come with W7 preloaded.
For the rest, I think consumers will skimp and attempt to upgrade certain hardware and software items, to avoid making a major purchase. Chances are, all the discounts and campaigns will be over.
So… how do I rate myself… if I gave myself an old-fashioned scholastic grade?
Taking off for the items I missed… I would give myself a B-.
What do you think?
